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RED ALERT!
Perspective on the News
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Ed DeShields

This is a special alert.  I am hearing much “advisory chatter” in the financial markets that warrants you to be acutely aware of your economic surroundings.    This is not a call to panic, or a prediction; it is simply a warning to be watchful and especially observant of the world events now occurring -- both now and in the immediate future of how they might affect you personally.

Considering the events unfolding in Japan, and elsewhere in the world, I would advise you to stay prepared for the likelihood of physical shortages of goods and services and to pay special attention to  events that could cause lifestyle disruptions to appear shortly – at your doorstep. 

This could include product shortages, high to very high prices for essentials (like gasoline and food) either in the short-term (immediately or over the next few weeks) or more slowly while getting progressively more severe over a relatively short time period.   It could also cause your financial investments to become highly volatile.   While not a financial advisor I would suggest you lean towards liquidity, especially cash.  Metals, gold and silver, appear stable.  

Japan is our third-largest trading partner and an important supplier of countless products consumed by the U.S., or integrated into other products around the globe.  Therefore any interruption in this global supply chain could cause any number of disruptions which would, in-turn, and echo around the world rapidly.

The world’s financial markets are selling off, and it is being reported that it is not only very nervous, but in near panic in some sectors.  The current sell off could eclipse any known sell-off and quickly escalate to affect the U.S. Treasury markets that directly affects our economic engine here at home.   The Bank of Japan is pumping billions of stability yen into the market and the world’s Central Banks will not stand-by idle.  They will respond according to try and take control a global financial meltdown sparked by a nuclear one.  

A mass evacuation of Japan, or specifically Tokyo, due to nuclear fallout would cause countless negative outcomes – too numerous or practical to speculate.   It is my observation that the nuclear event now evolving is apparently much worse than the actual news dribbling out and looks to be growing in intensity while the world stunningly observes the events as a deer-in-the-headlights would.  Multiple hydrogen explosions and fires now involving multiple reactors is not business-as-usual.   It could remain a regional event or trade winds could amplify the disaster – disputing food and water supplies far from Japan.  

It is my opinion that we are living this crash in slow-motion and the eventual outcome could spiral out-of-control thereby bringing Japan to its knees while its population deals with one of the most significant (and chain reaction) disasters ever recorded.   Japan is geographically quite small so a major nuclear fallout event could not only cause its inhabitants to flee, but make a portion of the country uninhabitable, while delivering their economy an unimaginable kill-shot.      

Should the worst outcome begin to unfold, disruptions will create panic buying, hoarding and irratiional markets. 

Of course I am not making a prediction as to the outcome of this event – but it is significant and worthy of a special alert.

About Ed DeShields



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