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Snapshot of a Moving Picture 2.0
Israel - Middle East
Monday, November 07, 2011
Pete Garcia

Since the last Snapshot was back in July, thought I would update some interesting new trends and add a little speculation on my part.  And while the world is pre-occupied with Dancing with the Stars, Republican debates, and Obama’s divine job’s bill, I thought I would showcase some happenings that seem to be slipping in under the radar.

I’d like to focus on the Middle East this time, since the “Arab Spring” has truly changed the geo-political game.  It seemed remote even a couple of years ago, that a literal Babylon could be the center of world power.  We knew that a Psalm 83 and/or Isaiah 17 event could happen, not just in the manner it has appeared to transpire.  A Gog-Magog invasion is not only on the horizon, but now makes more sense considering the way the nations have arrayed themselves.  Yet here we are, at the end of 2011, which looks a whole lot different than did the end of 2010.  My standard caveat applies, as this could all change tomorrow.

Israel:  Suffering slightly with its own tampered down version of an ‘Israeli Spring’, the Netanyahu coalition promised reforms and has begun rebuilding with a vengeance in Jerusalem and is even mulling over the notion of making Israel sovereign over Judea and Samaria, which will make more than a few liberals and Muslims upset.  In case you’ve been off the grid for the last few months, long-held Hamas prisoner, IDF Sgt. Gilad Shalit was released back to Israel after five long years in exchange for 1,027 ‘Palestinian’ Terrorists.  The exchange is broken up into two phases.

Phase one releases 477 ‘Palestinians’, with the rest of the 550 being released two months later.  I could be wrong, but my money is on that the other 550 terrorists (which are probably the worst of the lot) will never see the light of day as all bets are off once a war starts.  Nobody puts Bibi in a corner.

Israel just recently successfully test-fired their Jericho III, an Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) with the ability to carry a 1650 lb nuclear payload over a distance of 4,000 miles away.  It is not only a show of strength to the would be attackers in the Middle East, but a declaration to the world that Israel is not only a nuclear power, but a nuclear SUPER power.

Egypt:  Military leaders there are feeling a little less inclined to relinquish the total power to a democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood coalition.  I mean, after all, it was the military that did all the heavy lifting with their successful coup d'état of President Mubarak.  What is that old saying?  Absolute power corrupts absolutely?  News clip sums it up quite nicely:

Reporting from Cairo— Egypt's ruling military council is silencing critics while polishing its image amid increasing signs that it is plotting to stay in power behind the scenes even after a new parliament is in place early next year.

There has been talk in political circles that Egypt's new government might model itself on Turkey's blend of Islamic principles and Western-style democracy. Like Egypt, the Turkish state was founded by military leaders. But Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has curtailed the role of the military in recent years — a prospect Egypt's generals don't appear to relish.

"They might want to follow the Turkish model," said Darrag, who is running for parliament with the Freedom and Justice Party, "but it's the Turkish model from 40 years ago, not today's." (Source: LA Times 03NOV11)

Syria: Bashar Al Assad, like the Egyptian Generals, has learned a lot of lesson’s this last year.  Currently, he has thrown the gauntlet down to NATO (and anyone else for that matter) that if you invade his country to topple him, he’s going to rain down missiles on Tel Aviv, Israel.  He KNOWS Israel will retaliate utterly demolishing Damascus, so why would he do that?  I think (speculation here) is that by watching Tunisia’s ex-president Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, and Libya’s Moammar Qaddafi go down in flames; Assad has created his own ‘Sampson Option’.  If he’s going down, he’s going to take everyone else with him.  Interestingly, the Kurds play in a unique role in all this.  While the Turkish troops are mounting on his border, the British and American’s are now saying: Assad has to go!  Sound familiar?

Iraq: I had heard an interesting theory that is currently being floated by some geo-political thinkers that goes like this.  As the US pulls out of Iraq this year, ethnic and religious bickering will turn back into fighting as a power grab ensues.  Saudi Arabia will put together a Sunni-Arab coalition that basically establishes another Hashemite monarch as king in Iraq (much like they did in Jordan back in the early 20th century).

This is interesting in light of what we know will be result of the Psalm 83/Isaiah 17 prophecy concerning much of the surrounding nations of Israel.  Israel’s immediate enemies will be significantly weakened.  A monarchy could bring in the much sought after stability that has alluded the Iraqis since the 2003 US led invasion.  The oil reserves could then be used to renovate a new capital just 50 miles south of the war-torn Baghdad. This will be too enticing an opportunity for the United Nations to pass up, especially in light of a sputtering US economy and with both American’s disdain for the UN and our plummeting world opinion.

A new Green Zone could be built in a short period of time (as we’ve seen in Baghdad) that could be fortified to the hilt, with the latest and greatest technologies, flush with a nation sitting on the world’s fifth largest oil reserves (currently the US sits at spot 13).  UNESCO has already been working on making this a world class resort.

If a strike does occur in Iran by the likes of NATO and/or Israel, the Shiite movement within Iraq will undoubtedly lose its steam as much of the funding and weapons will be diverted elsewhere.  Again, with Turkey’s frequent air and land military incursions into northern Iraq, there is a Kurdish connection here, but you’ll just have to wait!

Iran:  As the current head of OPEC’s rotating leadership, Iran has come out to say they would be willing to sell oil without using the American dollar, which has been the stipulation since the days when President Nixon took America off the Gold Standard.

It is my belief, that this is the cause of an impending attack on Iran, rather than their nuclear ambitions.  Saddam switched to the euro back in 2000, and Iran followed suit in 2003, creating a surplus of dollars worldwide.  Of course, this has created a economic ripple effect that we began to feel as early as 2007.  You can find these studies here and here.  But as Iran’s last nerve frazzles to the core waiting on an impending attack, a much muted ousting almost occurred of Ahmajinedad by the Ayatollah Khamenei.  News finally broke that the relationship between the supreme religious leader and the supreme political leader was not fairing so well.  It appears that even Ahmajinedad was too extreme for the Ayatollah.  That, and he hung around with some less then reputable people.

In a speech, Ayatollah Khamenei made passing mention of the presidential system, which was his own route to power;

"Presently, the country's ruling political system is a presidential one in which the president is directly elected by the people, making this a good and effective method,
However, if one day, probably in the distant future, it is deemed that the parliamentary system is more appropriate for the election of officials with executive power, there would be no problem in altering the current structure." (Source: UK Telegraph 04NOV11)


If Iran does get hit by NATO and/or Israel, little Ahmajinedad’s ouster will come swiftly!  An attack on Iran will have to accomplish three things:

1. Neutralize Iran’s nuclear program permanently
2. Remove the Iranian influence from their surrounding neighbors
3. Regime change and/or downgrade the power of the theocracy

Of course, an attack on Iran will infuriate the Russian’s, who have spent a lot of time, rubles, and effort getting Iran to the nuclear status they want to be.  Again, the Kurds are the scourge of Islamic theocracies and dictatorships!

Turkey: Turkey went from friends to foes with Israel in under a decade.  Attempting to re-create the Ottoman Empire (2.0) under Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party, military leaders who aren’t falling in line are quickly being replaced.  The 2010 Flotilla debacle neither got Turkey the prized apology they sought after from Israel, nor won them any accolades from the EU, US, nor NATO.  Currently, they are seeking to pre-empt a Cypriot-Israeli joint deep-water natural gas drilling initiative by harassing Israeli and Greek vessels.  They really want to push the envelope with Israel, but every time they do, more pressing issues seem to come to the fore front.

Kurds: If you have 5 minutes and you really want to grasp the PKK circle and how it ties in Iran, Turkey, Syria, and Iraq, read this

Lessons Learned

In the Middle East, there is an old saying (and if it isn’t, it should be): if you want to keep your dictatorial power, it’s better to be America’s enemy than friend.  Hosni Mubarak learned that lesson a little too late.  What Mubarak should have done, in watching Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali flee for his life, was to do likewise.  Turkey’s Erdogan learned what to do by watching Egypt’s military assume control.  Bashar Al Assad learned what NOT to do by watching Mubarak’s military and “allies” throw him under the bus.  Qaddafi learned that it would have been better if he would have just kept his mouth shut.  The Egyptian Generals learned what not to do by watching an Islamic Radical like Tayyip Erdogan throw the Turkish Generals under the bus.  Israel is learning that it can’t depend on the Obama administration, and will either have to go it alone, or find new friends.  The rest of the world will learn that by cursing Israel, it will prove to be their undoing.

Closing Thoughts

With that said, let us pray for the peace of Jerusalem.  Let’s pray for our Arab, Kurdish, Persian, and Jewish brothers and sisters in Christ, that are caught there in the middle, that God will protect them and shield them from the imminent war that is threatening to explode all over the Middle East.

Although it’s easy to pick apart current events and showcase how Bible prophecy is solidifying in front of our very eyes on a daily basis, we have to remember that there are real lives and real suffering amongst those trapped in the Islam.  I fear, as do a lot of you, that as America turns her back on Israel, we too, will begin to feel the repercussions of our leaders’ decisions.  The “Land for Peace” initiative begun by Jimmy Carter has only hastened our natural catastrophes and irreparable sinking in abyss of debt and economic woes.  This verse should be a very sobering reminder to all, that what God has spoken, will come to pass.

“Behold, I will make Jerusalem a cup of drunkenness to all the surrounding peoples, when they lay siege against Judah and Jerusalem. And it shall happen in that day that I will make Jerusalem a very heavy stone for all peoples; all who would heave it away will surely be cut in pieces, though all nations of the earth are gathered against it."  (Zechariah 12:2-3) NKJV

About Pete Garcia

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