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Omega Letter - Daily Intelligence Briefing Discussion

Vol: 63 Issue: 28 - Thursday, December 28, 2006
Posted By: Tony Lisenby
12/28/2006 2:50:23 PM

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Original Daily Intelligence Briefing
1 Shout AMEN!Amen ~ 1 PrayingPraying

Member Comments:

While this is not a direct response to todays briefing, it is a response to several previous briefings including the "signs of the Times" in the last two briefings.
All the below are headlines from todays' Drudge Report:

EURO NOTES CASH IN TO OVERTAKE THE DOLLAR...
A coming of age for the European currency...
United Arab Emirates 'diversifying its reserves'...
Dollar Slides...
Global stocks at record high...

Just in case anyone is interested in critiquing Jacks' analysis about how rapidly the Euro can overtake and even eliminate the dollar.
Someone contradicted him, but the evidence seems to be rapidly shifting his way.
Keep on marching through the Valley, Brother. The Light is always able to break through the jungle somewhere.
Tony


Reply # 1 - ReplyTo ID: 4463


Posted By: Ed D. -
Date: 12/29/2006 11:03:40 AM
1 Shout AMEN!Amen ~ 1 PrayingPraying

Comments:

It was me that took a different view of Jack's Euro view. I suppose it contradicted Jack's message, but I did not "contradict" Jack personally, or in a mean-spirited way.

Tony, I guess you're taking me to the woodshed here for doing so. I intended no disrespect to Jack, or anyone else. I love Jack's writings. He is among my favorite reads.

I spoke up because the Euro issue is complex and involves global issues. Global economics is the only field where two Nobel prizes were awarded in the same year to recipients who expressed exactly the opposite viewpoints.

After Jack's Briefing that day, members of the forum began to seem fearful. Several asked for investment strategies that would protect them from this imminent doom. I felt that was a bad result from an interesting, but faulty, view of what is happening in the currency markets today.

Tony, I spend time on the currency trading floor. I talk with investment traders who move money all over globe everyday. Personally, I'm not a trader, but I have much more than a casual understanding of the subject being discussed. Yesterday, I was on the trading floor as those AP stories ran and subsequently posted onto Drudge. By time I got home they were gone. All non-starters as a story. However, you can wrap fish with what I say if you wish.

The headlines and conclusions you posted above are like trying to predict global warming with today's weather forecast in Alabama. You are suggesting that the market reports from yesterday saw an immiment collapse of the dollar and our way of living. That's simply not the truth.

There are two issues you suggest, (1) the devaluation of the dollar, and (2) the Euro surpassing the dollar.

Briefly, there have been three periods of dollar devaluation in the last 30 years -- each controlled by the world's central banks and the Fed. Moderate devaluation of currency is a good thing, in context, because is reduces our debt and makes our exports cheaper so our economy booms. That is what is happening right now. Our economy is on fire.

The acceptance of the Euro is an interesting subject. But it should remain in context. All kinds of conspiracy theories can be spun from the expansive subject. Theories that can support any such view. Many of these theories are batted around here; the Amero to mention just one.

For me, the bottom line is the following.

Chinn and Frankel, two leading currency economists (with dissimilar views) have done excellent work in answering the Euro vs. Dollar question. The predictions about scenarios under which the euro might rival or surpass the dollar as the world’s leading international reserve currency boils down to two things:

(1) whether enough other EU members join euroland so that it becomes larger than the US economy and, in particular, whether the UK comes in, with its large financial markets; and

(2) whether US macroeconomic policies eventually undermine confidence in the value of the dollar through inflation and depreciation.

Whatever value this exercise has probably consists of estimating, contingent on those two things happening, how quickly the euro might rise to challenge the dollar.

Chinn and Frankel find that if all 13 EU members who are not currently in EMU join it by 2020, including the United Kingdom, then the euro overtakes the dollar a few years later. We also find that even if some of these countries do not join, a continuation of the recent trend depreciation of the dollar, were it to occur for whatever reason, could bring about the tipping point even sooner.

And remember, the British Pound Sterling was until 1940's the world's leading currency until the Dollar surpassed it -- and England didn't cease to exist.

Now is everything just rosey out there? No, but it all works together, in context. If the dollar collapses all of Asia collapses with us including China. There is not a central bank in the world that wishes to see the dollar destabilized (that sounds like prophesy subject in itself!)

So, agree or not, that's my contribution to the discussion.


Reply # 2 - ReplyTo ID: 4465


Posted By: Tony Lisenby -
Date: 12/29/2006 1:26:18 PM
1 Shout AMEN!Amen ~ 1 PrayingPraying

Comments:

LOL,
I didn't remember, so you are giving yourself away, and that is not mean-spirited either.
I just really think that God, when he makes a decision on what to do, or when to do it, does not care about any of mans institutions, or how WE plan for things to work.
I mean, He parted the Red Sea (Actually the Gulf of Aqaba). He did it in moments, held it open until He was ready for it to close, and closed it in minutes.
Man has dammed rivers, but no man has ever accomplished that feat.
The point is, if God can make the earth out of nothing at all, then make man out of the dust of it, he can certainly control the dollar without having to worry about some artificial time line that we think is appropriate.
As I have said in earlier rants, I believe the Bible is an extremely accurate history of past, present and future events, and I believe it should first be taken in context, but secondly, taken quite literally. I hold that to be true even when I don't understand because I am "seeing through a glass darkly" as Paul would say.
I believe your points are extremely well made and make a great deal of sense in the natural. God is certainly not incapable of following that methodology.
However, if He decides to foreclose, He is not required to get our permission or use our schedule, and He has already warned us in His Word (Bible) and by His Word (Jesus).
As for the USA ceasing to exist, well, that is another story all together, and most leading proponents of Bible Prophecy all agree that there is no mention of any country similar to this one in end times prophecy, so the assumption is that the USA no longer exists as a viable nation.
Again, God is the only person who knows whether that is so. The leading proponents of Prophecy have been wrong before, misread events before and some even purposefully misstated events for their own self-aggrandizement, but the majority agree that this nation will not be an end times power.
As far as England is concerned, prior to WWII the statement was that "The sun never sets on the British Empire". As a country they still exist. As a world power, they are minor league domestically, economically and militarily, and they are certainly lacking spiritually. Many of their most famous churches have been converted to night clubs and other businesses.
There is a whole litany of such events that are mushrooming before our eyes, and in Gods' time, not ours.
I'll just stay with the idea that when God is ready, whatever He decides WILL happen, and it will be on His schedule.
Having investments won't help much. Having land in a very secluded area might unless we are part of the rapture, and that is MY plan for the future.
Tony